Two other election-related tidbits

I know there have been a few election-related posts here, but here’s two more:

• I’ve been keeping an eye on Mike Smithson’s ‘Political Betting‘ website. Mike’s general prejudice seems to have been that, generally the most optimistic poll from the range available for the Tories actually understates the support that they will get at the election. For a while, I slightly distrusted his site, suspecting him of being a Tory booster, but I’m reliably informed that this isn’t the case. Also, while the polls are narrowing excitingly, (Labour activists have been jumping on Twitter’s #gameon hashtag a lot recently) it seems that the spread markets are holding firm on their belief in a Tory majority – and I’d trust them a great deal more than any pollster as a forecaster for the final result. Rumour has it that Labour are actually Ladbrokes favourite now to be the largest party, but I can’t be bothered to register to confirm this – it’s the spread markets I’d trust more myself. Betfair still likes the Tories….
  

  Polling station in Cambridge 2005. Click pic for credit.

• If you have a half-hour to spare, please go and listen to the recent Radio 4 Analysis ‘Babies & Biscuits’ programme on women voters. It’s one of the most data-rich programmes that I’ve heard for a long time, and if that link no longer works, then you can subscribe to the podcast which will allow you to get at their archive of programmes. I spent many a long evening poring over electoral studies in the mid-1990s, and listening to this programe reminded me of reading one very good but-very-dense essay on the subject (and don’t tell me you didn’t prepare for exams by borrowing high-scoring essays from other students!)

Apologies again. If you’re looking for a break from election fever over the next few weeks you’ve probably come to the wrong place