I think that a lot of election commentary is missing something important about how we vote. As some commenters here have said, in the past, ‘at elections, we order our preferences’.
That makes this really interesting. Nick Clegg doesn’t seem to be strongly objected to in the way that Gordon Brown and David Cameron are. Could the Lib Dems win my a landslide?
Digest these figures……
| Delighted | Wouldn’t mind | Dismayed | |
| Lib Dem govt under Nick Clegg | 29% | 38% | 21% |
| Con govt under David Cameron | 25% | 20% | 45% |
| Lab govt under Gordon Brown | 18% | 23% | 51% |
Update: What if Clegg could convince a significant number of us that he was winning.
confirmed by http://www.slapometer.com. Clegg has been slapped only 5 million times, compared to 20 million for Brown and 15 Million for Cameron.
“Could the Lib Dems win my a landslide?”
I keep crunching the numbers, working out proportional swings, guessing at the tactical effect. I never ever thought I’d see the results I’m getting.
Yes, yes they could. Get above 38%ish in the polls, and assuming there’s some tactical voting in their favour, they (we) win a massive majority.
And under Gordon’s AV plan, it’d be even bigger.
I mean, I preicted we’d break the hundred seat barrier this time; I was told I was being overly optimistic. I said the debates and media attention would make a difference. I really should have put that fiver down a few months back.
Forgot to tick that box.
@MatGB – Remember that the AV system a) allows people not to state a second preference, so Labour voters could just seppuku themselves in the name of party loyalty and b) effectively eliminates all but the top two candidates, which in most seats isn’t us (and by doing so prevents 3rd party breakthroughs).
@OP – You might be asking yourself, as we all are, how did I get it so wrong? The answer of course is that all the people ‘dismayed’ by Cameron switch to Labour to avoid him (give or take) and all those ‘dismayed’ by Brown staying voted for the Conservatives. Why? The coverage of coalitions meant that they feared their undesired would be propped up by Nick so actively voted the other way (even in LD safe seats like NE Fife where it didn’t make any sense to do so).